Nintendo Cautiously Predicts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has released what industry analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for the highly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 amidst ongoing concerns about tariffs. The company announced its financial projections for the current fiscal year, ending March 31, 2026, predicting sales of 15 million units for the Switch 2 and 45 million game units. The new console is slated to hit the market on June 5.

Nintendo's forecast takes into account the U.S. tariff rates that were implemented on April 10, which are expected to remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that any adjustments to these tariffs could impact their projections. "We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions," stated Nintendo.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, labeled the 15 million unit forecast as "conservative." In a tweet, Ahmad suggested that Nintendo is likely factoring in uncertainties related to tariffs, pricing, and production, despite strong pre-order momentum. He further noted that Nintendo might revise its forecast upwards if the tariff situation improves. "However, the main issue right now is the knock-on effects that are already in motion and creating a difficult environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs," Ahmad added.

It's important to highlight that if the Switch 2 manages to sell 15 million units in its first year, it would rank among the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Switch's debut sales of 14.87 million units.

Demand for the Nintendo Switch 2 appears to be substantial. Following a delay caused by tariffs, pre-orders for the console commenced on April 24, with the price set at $449.99. The response was overwhelming, as expected. Additionally, Nintendo has issued a caution to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, indicating that release date delivery is not guaranteed due to the high demand.

For more information on securing your own Switch 2, be sure to check out IGN's comprehensive Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.