It’s been an eventful week for U.S. gamers, marked by a series of surprising announcements from Nintendo. The week kicked off with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its features and game lineup. However, excitement quickly turned to concern when the price was announced at $450 for the console and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo decided to delay pre-orders due to the Trump Administration's sudden imposition of sweeping tariffs on numerous countries, leaving gamers wondering if the Nintendo Switch 2's price would increase further when pre-orders finally open.
We've previously explored the reasons behind the Nintendo Switch 2's high cost and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry at large. Now, the burning question is: What will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive?
Typically, when faced with such industry-related queries, I consult a panel of expert analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. I've relied on their insights twice this week already. However, this time, the situation has left even seasoned analysts stumped. While some offered guesses—Nintendo might raise the price or might not—every response was heavily caveated, emphasizing the unprecedented chaos and unpredictability of the current climate.
With that in mind, here's a summary of what the analysts had to say:
Sky-High Switch
The analysts were divided on whether Nintendo would raise the price of the Switch 2. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it might be too late for a price hike after the initial announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," Toto said. He suggested that a base model price of $500 wouldn't be surprising given the tariffs' impact.
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also anticipates a general rise in game prices, including those from Nintendo. He noted that the tariffs' scope and impact were unexpected for everyone involved. Piscatella explained that Nintendo had likely factored in some tariff assumptions when setting the original price, but the actual tariffs exceeded expectations. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point," he stated.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts an increase in hardware prices but believes software might be less affected due to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins," Rosier said, suggesting that higher retail prices might be passed on to consumers.
Holding the Line
On the other hand, some analysts believe Nintendo will strive to maintain the announced price. Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but thinks Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. He believes the $449.99 price already accounts for potential tariff volatility. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," van Dreunen said. He suggests that Nintendo might absorb or offset additional costs to maintain the current price, though external pressures could force a reassessment if the trade situation worsens.
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo faces a dilemma after announcing the launch price. He believes the company will delay any price changes until at least 2026 if the tariffs persist. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," Harding-Rolls said. He warns that a price increase could impact the brand and consumer perception, potentially affecting sales during the crucial first holiday season.
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his earlier comments on Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode," Elliott said.
Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He noted that some manufacturers, including Nintendo, are shifting production to non-tariff-impacted markets, but the unpredictability of future tariffs complicates these efforts. "We are living in...there’s no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," Elliott remarked, criticizing the tariffs for increasing consumer costs during a cost-of-living crisis and contradicting core economic principles.
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